Will UK Make the Tournament?

[Downes Van Zandt]

UT is our only Q1 win. You’re all aware of the losses. UK was on the outside looking in before UT, probably among the last four in after that little win streak, but now the Cats have blown another Q1 opportunity and are likely back on the wrong side of the bubble.

There are remaining opportunities for quality wins, but who among us is confident Kentucky will capitalize? If they head into the SEC tourney with ten losses, they’d probably have to win the whole thing to make it to the Big Dance, which is as unlikely a prospect as I’ve had to imagine this season.

It ain’t lookin’ good right now, folks.

[Will Lavender]

Still unknown. Last night would have put us squarely in and we blew it.

The one and only good thing Kentucky has is arguably the best win in college basketball. The bad thing is that in all 6 other chances to get a big win we've failed every time. Not good. As of this morning our NET is a decent-ish 35th...but that glaring 1-6 record knocks us out as of today IMO.

There are 6 total games left for Kentucky, with 4 possible Quad 1 wins: Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi St., Tennessee. And then of course whatever we do in the SEC Tournament.

Still enough time to do something. I mean Tennessee is being considered as a number 1 seed right now and they have 4 Quad 1 wins.

The problem is that games like this one on Tuesday night you can't lose. They absolutely have to go on the road and win.

[TrueblueCATfan]

We need to win out and beat Tennessee at Rupp

[Will Lavender]

Regarding the NET and for some context, last season Oklahoma was one of the first four out and their NET ranking was 40th.

[Will Lavender]

There are 6 total games left for Kentucky, with 4 possible Quad 1 wins: Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi St., Tennessee. And then of course whatever we do in the SEC Tournament.

Wait, this is wrong. I’m an idiot.

10 total games left. So yeah, still a ton of time remaining to do something.

[KentuckyWild2020]

If we can make the tournament hit the reset button and block out the noise, we can still make a run in my opinion...

[justford]

May come down to how we do in the SEC tournament🤷♂️
Hard to imagine us being in top four to get a bye.

[40bill]

Trouble is most of everything is done and set before the tourney ends....and Caliparis looooooooooong list of blowing off the SEC tourney doesn't give warm fuzziness.

We likely ate outside looking in.
And deservedly.

[lilproUK98]

It's not out of the question at all that this team could go 8-2 down the stretch and win two or three games in the SEC tournament and be a 6-8 seed on the NCAA tournament and anything could happen.

However, it is also entirely possible that they could go 5-5 and lose their 1st game of the sec tournament and are an NIT team.

My question is, what if the latter happens? 😬

[Will Lavender]

Yeah, 5-5 we're not in. 6-4 it's close. 7-3 we're in.

If we don't get in I'm sure nothing happens unless Cal wants it to. Because contract.

Pretty massive failure if the NIT does happen. This team isn't "good" in the strictest sense of the word but there's no reason we should've struggled so much early in the season. Coaching debacle, pretty much.

Now he has to find a way to reset a fragile team after last night. It'll probably be his toughest task of an already rough season.

[matt colvin]

I feel like we’re going to make it in…barely.

[lilproUK98]

Yeah, 5-5 we're not in. 6-4 it's close. 7-3 we're in.

If we don't get in I'm sure nothing happens unless Cal wants it to. Because contract.

Pretty massive failure if the NIT does happen. This team isn't "good" in the strictest sense of the word but there's no reason we should've struggled so much early in the season. Coaching debacle, pretty much.

Now he has to find a way to reset a fragile team after last night. It'll probably be his toughest task of an already rough season.

My question wasn't really what happens in reference to Cal, but more so everything else around the program, fans etc. I'm sure it'll be much like after St. Peters, but to a slightly higher degree. But, yeah, Cal likely isn't considering leaving till after next season. Next year's team will have more pressure on them than maybe any since 77-78. UK has never gone more than three seasons without an NCAA tournament win.

[KentuckyWild2020]

I didn't write this so I won't take credit but something interesting i read today..

The lineup of Cason Wallace, Antonio Reeves, CJ Fredrick, Jacob Toppin and Oscar Tshiebwe graded out as the best lineup in basketball with an adjusted team efficiency margin of 86.0.
No other school had a lineup with an efficiency margin greater than 70.0 (LSU). In fact, only three total lineups graded out higher than 60.0, with Kansas (66.6) having the other.

Taking a deeper dive, Kentucky’s lineup of Wallace, Reeves, Fredrick, Toppin and Tshiebwe is actually the most efficient of any five-man unit since the 2019-20 season.

Despite the lineup’s offensive potential, John Calipari was concerned with how it’d be on the other end of the floor. Interestingly enough, it’s graded out as the most efficient defensive lineup in college basketball with at least 60 possessions at 51.6. So not only is it producing points on the offensive end, it’s limiting production on the other.

However, Kentucky's defense has been at its worst in league play with Wheeler on the floor. The optimum five of Wallace, Reeves, Fredrick, Toppin and Tshiebwe allows just .79 points per possession against SEC opponents. But that figure skyrockets to 1.15 points per possession for opponents when Wheeler is on the floor.

Basketball analyst also saw the way ball movement and spacing improved with Wallace on the floor alongside two shooters, as did Tshiebwe’s ability to go to work down low. It passed the eye test, and now that the sample size is growing, the analytics are starting to back it up, as well.

Add to this

Cason Wallace is the best all-around freshman in the country.

Amongst freshmen, Wallace is the only one to be ranked in the top 20 in points, assists, and steals while shooting 50% FG and 40% 3P.

Points (12.9, 17th)
Assists (3.9, 7th)
Steals (2.3, 3rd)
50.4% FG
45.6% 3P

[KentuckyWild2020]

I feel like we’re going to make it in…barely.

We make i think the team can hit the reset and get it together, I believe that, just have to get there 1st ...

[KentuckyWild2020]

It's not out of the question at all that this team could go 8-2 down the stretch and win two or three games in the SEC tournament and be a 6-8 seed on the NCAA tournament and anything could happen.

However, it is also entirely possible that they could go 5-5 and lose their 1st game of the sec tournament and are an NIT team.

My question is, what if the latter happens? 😬

If the latter happens fanbase will go wild but can't go too crazy with that incoming class lol, Cal holds the cards and will use that as leverage like he always does....